macroeconomic policy

Mohamed El-Erian

Mohamed El-Erian is Arabic, born in 1958. He graduated from the Cambridge University and got his master’s and doctorate degree in the University of Oxford (both in economics), which allowed him to become one of the world’s leading investing managers and earn a great reputation.

He has been working for the IMF (Investment Monetary Fund) for 15 years, got the rank of the deputy director and has had an experience working at the London Citibank, teaching at the Harvard Business School.

Mr. El-Erian also made a substantial contribution working for PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company), the world’s largest bond fund, which he joined in 1999, as one of the CEOs (Chief Executive Officers).

And, eventually, this successful investment professional became a head of the HMC ( Harvard Management Company). It is a huge company, that deals with managing the Harvard University’s capital and assets ( worth about 35 billion dollars) - which is considered to be the largest university’s endowment. He has been working there for 2 years, but then returned to PIMCO. By the June 2008 PIMCO had more than $829.5 billion in assets under control and more than 1000 people employed.

He is also well-known as a publisher on different economic and financial issues at the world’s famous newspapers and the author of the book ‘ When Markets Collide’, which won the Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award 2008. The book tells about the structure of the modern capital markets - El-Erian shares with us his unique understanding of the global market and forecasts dramatic changes in the financial markets- essential information each investor should be aware of.

He also has made several hypotheses about the development of the world crisis. In his interview to Handelsblatt he predicted the seat of tension of the crisis to be in Share Markets and the Markets for inputs. His prediction about crisis has strong influence on the behavior of investors.

minimum and maximum prices

Minimum price



Maximum price

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Demand



Demerit goods




Merit goods

Inflation (yellow version %)

question 35

Landers Paints Ltd have for many years produced paints and varnishes specifically for industrial use. These products have been sold both directly to the customer and through builders’ merchants. Larger firms tend to buy directly from Landers, whereas smaller customers, such as builders and decorators, use the latter.


The products are sold in large quantities in basic packaging at low prices. This enables Landers to keep costs to a minimum and prices at a competitive level. The most popular products are basic items, for instance, white and magnolia emulsion paint.


However, the recent increase in the popularity of DIY has resulted in a small fall in sales at Landers. Keen to reverse this decrease, the Managing Director, John Smith, is considering whether to launch a range of paints for home decorating. At a recent board meeting, he put forward this proposal.


‘I think that Landers should launch a range of paints and varnishes for the domestic market. Given our expertise and production facilities, the new products will hardly disrupt things around here and should lead to a significant increase in sales.’


The Marketing Manager, Shirley Thomas, reacted with caution.


‘I’m not so sure because there are substantial differences between marketing products made for industrial markets and those for consumer markets. I think it may be a lot harder than you think.’


‘Obviously, there are differences’, replied John, ‘but I really don’t think that some new packaging and a bit of advertising is enough of a reason to miss out on such a good opportunity.’


Questions:


1. Explain why the recent increase in popularity of DIY has caused sales at Landers Paints Ltd to decrease.
It's clear-with the increase in popularity of DIY the demand for the paint products decreases, so that businesses have to supply less and buy less from the Landers Paints Ltd.


2 a) Identify the key differences between an industrial market and a consumer market.

The main difference between the industrial and the consumer market is that the latter is aimed directly at consumer and the first is for businesses. Moreover, organisation buying has special decision-making (purchasing) procedures, which vary from firm to firm, while consumer buying is made according to people's personal needs. Organisations also tend to have more information than ordinary consumers ( an example of assymetric information), so that they are more likely to be interested in technical specifictations of the product, when ordinary consumers are more worried about appearance and affordability.

b) Analyse the difficulties that may be experienced by Landers Paints Ltd if they move into the consumer market.
The main difficulty may consist in forecasting consumers needs - as they are less constant than that of businesses.
Also the company may experience increase in production costs: taking retailers on  for new shops, logistics for making new marketing strategy, advertising costs... And, therefore, it may be difficult for company to set the affordable prices.



3. Landers Paints Ltd decide to launch a range of products for the consumer market. Recommend a marketing mix for the new products.

Creating a marketing strategy for the new products, the 4P's of the marketing mix should be considered.

Here are these P:
Product
Price
Place
Promotion

Diversing its new products to the consumer market, Landers Paints Ltd should firstly set an affordable level of prices, so that people prefer buying this products and saving their time to DIY (doing it yourslef).

Secondly, the place of distribution this new products should be chosen correctly: it should be situated in the city centre or/and in the largest supermakerts- so that it is easy for people to consume and it creates the right impression of the product ( product for ordinary people, not for enterprises).

Thirdly, the product itself should have attractive appearance and be easy to use, the characteristics of this paints and varnishes should meet consumer's needs.

And, eventually, promotion of the new products. That's all about creating the right image of the product: this paints should be advertised as the high quality product and not requiring additional skills to use it.

picture source - http://www.tutor2u.net/business/marketing/what_is_marketing.asp

the 15th mind map

Subsidy

question 24

Cressida Grainger started her entrepreneurial career at the age of 22, running a small antiques business. Whilst on a visit to Glasgow market, she discovered lava lamps and bought some to sell on her Camden market stall. The 1960s lamps, which mix oil and water to create psychedelic patterns, were an instant success so she tracked down the inventor, Edward Craven, and eventually bought the then loss-making business from him.


In 1989, Mathmos was born. The firm started to market the lamps to a new set of fashion conscious consumers eager to buy ‘retro chic’ products. The marketing paid off and since then, Mathmos has enjoyed spectacular success, achieving £18 million of sales in 1999.


However, the business has recently run into some difficulties. Following the success of the lava lamps, competitors from the Far East have realised the potential of the products and the market is now being flooded with imitation lamps that are sold at prices that Mathmos would struggle to make the item for. This problem is increased by retailers who stock the cheaper, imported goods alongside the Mathmos originals. In effect, the Mathmos name is advertising other companies’ products.


Grainger is determined to fight back, though. With the name Mathmos linked to high quality products and first-rate after sales service, she believes that her business can be expanded in order to win back market share. Two strategies are being considered.


Option One: Diversification into other product areas, such as gifts and fashion accessories.


Option Two: Extend Mathmos’ unique position as leaders in innovative domestic lighting through the development of new lighting products.


Ultimately, Grainger knows that Mathmos must maintain its innovative edge in order to remain successful in the market place.


(Adapted from Sarah Gracie, The Sunday Times, April 9 2000)


Questions


1. Explain why Mathmos lava lamps were initially so successful.

Probably the main reason for this lava lamps to be successful is that a great advertising company was made- in order to make the consumer consider this product not as an old, out-of-fashion and useless thing, but as a 'retro-chic' product. So it was extremely fashionable. And, as we learned from the article, the right marketing strategy also played a great role in expanding the demand for the product.


2. Recently, Mathmos has begun to experience some difficulties. Analyse the key causes of these problems.

As the new firms entered the market, providing the same products for the lower price, the demand for the original product fell down. People didn't understand the difference between the original lamp and the imitation, or probably, didn't consider this difference worth overpaying for. People had already known all the benefits of the product and the target audience had been already formed - so there was no need for new firms to make a great advertising company. Therefore, they reduced their production costs, which allowed to make the product cheaper - - -> more attractive for consumers.

3. Explain how the use of market segmentation could help Mathmos to market its products

effectively.

Market segmentation is the process of classifying a market into distinct subsets (segments) that behave in similar ways or have similar needs. (wikipedia)

There are 4 main factors, using which the market can be segmented: demographical, geographical, behaviour and psyhographic bases.
So the whole lava lamp market wil be divided into several segments according to consumers purchasing abilities, product knowledge, usage and so on.
Therefore, market segmentation will increase market opportunities, as the consumer's needs will be recognised and satisfied more efficiently, that means, Mathmos will market his products more efficiently.

4. Evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of the possible options for development.

Firstly, option one seems to be a good idea, as if the lava lamp production diverses into other product areas, its target audience changes, so the new target audience might be wider and more willing to buy the product. In addition, it's clear that the lava lamp will be new to such product areas as gifts and fashion accessories, therefore, it should attract the consumers by its newness and exceptioness for this area of the market

Disadvantage may consist in this product being unappropriate for this area of the market, for exmaple, if nobody considers lava lamps as gifts.

Option two seems to me more profitable: it will make Mathmos a monopoly, which will allow to set the suitable prices for the new lamp products and, therefore, increase allocative efficiency and profit.
But the problem is - if there won't even be enough quantity of demand for the new types of lamp to cover all production costs? That is the thing that deals with market research- in this case, i guess, it is unavoidable .

Government failure and government intervention


Inward Migration


Monetary Policy

The Prisoner's Dilemma

The best way to understand the Prisoner's Dilemma is to set 2 examples.

A classic example of the Prisoner's Dilemma

Two suspects are arrested by the police. The police have insufficient evidence for a conviction, and, having separated both prisoners, visit each of them to offer the same deal.
If one testifies ("defects") for the prosecution against the other and the other remains silent, the betrayer goes free and the silent accomplice receives the full 10-year sentence.
If both remain silent, both prisoners are sentenced to only six months in jail for a minor charge.
If each betrays the other, each receives a five-year sentence. Each prisoner must choose to betray the other or to remain silent. Each one is assured that the other would not know about the betrayal before the end of the investigation. How should the prisoners act?




Economics application of the Prisoner's Dilemma.

Consider two firms, say Coca-Cola and Pepsi, selling similar products. Each must decide on a pricing strategy.
They best exploit their joint market power when both charge a high price; each makes a profit of ten million dollars per month. If one sets a competitive low price, it wins a lot of customers away from the rival.

Suppose its profit rises to twelve million dollars, and that of the rival falls to seven million. If both set low prices, the profit of each is nine million dollars.
Here, the low-price strategy is akin to the prisoner’s confession, and the high-price akin to keeping silent. Call the former cheating, and the latter cooperation. Then cheating is each firm’s dominant strategy, but the result when both “cheat” is worse for each than that of both cooperating.


sources:
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multiple choice questions

Market Failure and Government Failure.

1. A farmer tips chemical waste into a river because he can do so at no cost to itself is an example of a positive externality.

a) True
b) False


2. People may not know what is in their own best interests and thus may under-consume certain goods or services such as education or health care.

a) True
b) False


3. Government failure cannot happen if the government has the support of consumers and producers when it decides on it's policies.

a) True
b) False


4. The list below shows the estimated costs and benefits of building a new factory

Private costs 90,000 pounds
External costs 30,000 pounds
Private benefits 75,000 pounds
External benefits 25,000 pounds

From the data it can be concluded that

a) Social costs exceed social benefits
b) Social benefits exceed social costs
c) The factory should be built
d) The social costs equal 30,000 pounds


5. Which one of the following is a characteristic of a merit good?

a) Once the good has been supplied to one consumer, there is no extra cost in supplying it to others
b) It is always provided free of charge to low-income consumers
c) It may not be provided by the market in sufficient quantities
d) It tends to be provided by the government because of the problem of non-excludability


6. A free good

a) Is available free of charge to consumers
b) Has no opportunity cost of production
c) Is not taxed by the government
d) Creates no externalities


7. Which of the following can be efficiently allocated between competing uses by the price mechanism?

a) Private goods
b) Public goods
c) Free goods
d) Negative and positive externalities


8. Which of the following is least likely to be a feature of a monopoly?

a) In the long run, no profits will be earned
b) Choice for the consumer will be restricted
c) It will be protected by barriers to entry
d) Price may be higher than in a more competitive market


9. What is implied by the existence of a negative externality?

a) Individuals are not the best judges of their own well-being
b) Output is below its socially optimum level
c) Producers are not always seeking to maximise profits
d) There is a divergence between private and social costs

10. Which of the following is not a cause of market failure?

a) The existence of commonly-owned property resources such as the oceans
b) The existence of public goods
c) The existence of externalities
d) The existence of perfect knowledge of prices among consumer and producer


Answers:
1)b
2)a
3)b
4)a
5)c
6)b
7)a
8)a
9)d
10)d

again and again

Unemployment



Economies and Diseconomies of Scale


Exchange rate

3 more

Consumer spending


Economic cycle


Market structure

e-cigarettes

Information failure occurs when consumers and producers are not given any information or they are not given exact information- so they are not aware of all aspects of things they deal with.
Talking about electronic cigarette market, the information failure consists in uncertainty whether this product is bad for health or not.
Electronic cigarettes are advertised as an absolutely healthy product and as a good alternative for real smoking. It is even said that the electronic cigarette tastes, smells and looks as a real one - isn't that attractive for smokers? And this advertisement does work - especially for the people who want to get rid of this bad habit.
Electronic cigarettes can also be consumed for economical reason - it costs about 40-50 pounds, so do 9 packs of usual cigarettes. But the electronic one, of course, you can use much longer.

Are these cigarettes really harmless?Some research has been done, but no prove was suggested, so we can't be convinced in anything totally.

Looking on e-cigarette market, we should mention asymmetric information.The existence of asymmetric information is a special case of the information failure, when different parts of people have different amount of information. For example, in online shopping services the buyer is not aware of the quality of the product bought - wrong description may be provided as well.

So, asymmetric information is certainly presented in this market as the producer gets more information about the technology than the consumer - he might be aware of all steps of producing this good. Producer may also hide some characteristic of the good in order to get more revenue from this 'amazing innovation'.


Government intervention can reduce market failure, but not entirely. Government may subsidise the research on new type of cigarettes, so that people are given right information.
Government can also introduce fines on smoking in public places and near buildings.

more more more mind maps

Balance of Payments on Current Account


Capital Investment


Circular flow of income